Despite another volatile quarter, capped by the Brexit decision in late June, stock and bond markets once again had a positive quarter. In fact, the chart below looks almost identical to the same chart in the first quarter. Global Real Estate outperformed all other asset classes again in the second quarter, and International Developed stocks were the only asset class to provide negative returns.
READ MORE2016 started with the worst opening week in stock market history. January’s second week wasn’t much better, but markets bounced back throughout the quarter, ending in gains for most stock markets. The swoon and subsequent rebound was just another recent example of how quickly markets can turn. We do not know anyone that thought in January that the first quarter would end with positive returns; yet, they did for all major asset classes, except for international developed stocks.
READ MOREGlobal markets bounced back in the fourth quarter after a terrible third quarter. US stocks once again led the rebound, up over 6%. For the year, US stocks were flat, but that exceeded International Developed and Emerging Market stocks, where returns were negative for the second year in a row. Commodities experienced its second year in a row of double-digit declines as well. Bonds were relatively flat for the quarter and the year.
READ MOREDuring the 3rd quarter, global stock markets experienced their worst returns since 2011. Emerging Markets stocks, International Developed stocks, and Commodities all experienced double-digit declines. Bonds were up modestly for the quarter, as is often the case in periods when stocks experience significantly negative returns.
READ MOREEven though terrorism in Europe, the current political landscape in the US and other countries, as well as nuclear threats from North Korea gave us reason to believe markets should be down, that was not the case.
READ MOREInternational markets outperformed US markets during quarter. Global Real Estate (REITs) continued their strong returns from last year with another solid quarter. Bonds once again chugged along with small gains, despite all of the market’s worries about rising interest rates in the U.S.
READ MOREU.S. equities once again performed better than international markets, showing positive gains, while international equities were significantly negative. The dollar appreciated against most currencies, negatively impacting international returns. Global REITs had higher returns than most asset classes in the fourth quarter, outperforming all other general indices. Bond markets continued their impressive march forward, despite continual pundit predictions to completely avoid the asset class.
READ MOREIn contrast to October’s volatility, the broad US stock market was flat during the third quarter, helped tremendously by large cap stocks. Small cap US stocks were strongly negative. International stock markets and real estate reversed course from the previous two quarters, providing negative returns as well. Both US and International bonds continued to provide positive results. The much anticipated and discussed bursting of the 30-year bond bubble definitely did not occur. Long-term government bonds, which all the experts feared were in the most danger this year from Fed actions, are up 13.6% year-to-date.
READ MOREEquity markets led by emerging markets once again posted positive returns for the quarter. This was the first quarter emerging markets outperformed developed markets since the third quarter of 2012. REITs outperformed equities for the second consecutive quarter. As we mentioned in our 4th Quarter 2013 letter, emerging markets and REITS were the two asset classes that underperformed in 2013, but we described why we stay invested in them. So far in 2014, this discipline has been rewarded. Finally, both U.S. and International Bonds had their second consecutive positive quarter after their 2013 losses.
READ MOREUS REITs rebounded 7% in the first quarter after declining in Q4 2013. Equity returns were mostly positive but lower than they were during much of 2013. Both U.S. and International Bonds rebounded from their 2013 losses. Finally, while not shown in the chart below, Commodities rose 7%, led by agricultural commodities, such as coffee, hogs, corn, and wheat.
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